Posting on http://www.economist.com/node/18712497/comments#comment-923970
'legally binding targets'?
"In the probable event that the 'legally binding targets' are not met, who penalises whom and how?"
This is the question I posed on 17th June 2010 at a seminar for the Imperial [College] Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICEPT) and the Energy Futures Lab. given by Lord Stern and Will Cavendish.
Lord Stern's answer: "It's just words".
Meanwhile, Chris Huhne's 'legally binding' carbon budget will increase power bills, encourage industrial CO2 emigration (e.g. Tata Steel aka Corus aka British Steel), yet have a negligible effect on climate change – assuming that the climate models are accurate – on a global view the UK’s contribution is miniscule.
There is an on-going series of ritual international genuflections on stabilising and reducing CO2 emissions at selected resorts: Bali, Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Rio ...
Despite these earnest objectives global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise. The International Energy Agency baseline prediction: CO2 emissions will increase from 30 GTonnes in 2010 to 57 GTonnes in 2050. This is a clear consequence of population growth and increasing living standards.
The philosophy of the UK governing establishment is therefore masochistic and ineffectual: we are to be punished for the perceived sins of the past in leading the fossil fuel powered industrial revolution whilst producing no net benefit by reducing the perceived future threat of climate change.
To what extent should we accept a readily quantifiable economic penalty now to meet an uncertainly predicted danger in 50 or 100 years time? What technology could emerge in the interim to fix the problem?
Cui bono?
[Cui bono ("To whose benefit?", literally "as a benefit to whom?" … is a Latin adage that is used either to suggest a hidden motive or to indicate that the party responsible for something may not be who it appears at first to be.]
If we do accept the dogma that global warming is taking place and anthropogenic CO2 is the cause, then, given the increase in fossil fuel burn, global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come - ice will melt; sea levels will rise.
(But: What plans do the pragmatic Netherlanders have to cope? - the UK government’s view in DECC is that the existing Thames Barrier will provide adequate protection until 2070.)
Fossil fuels produce C02; the defossilisation/de-CO2-ification of increasing global energy consumption will become an imperative.
Carbon capture & sequestration is an expensive and unproven palliative.
Wind is intermittent and needs back up from other generators; there are also significant costs to develop a distributed grid infrastructure. The UK is not routinely blessed with sunshine even if solar PV gets cheaper.
Therefore in the immediate term the only viable solution is nuclear (fission) power. This does have the associated problems for managing the waste residues as well as the potential for terrorist attack and WMD development.
In the longer term the ultimate ‘get CO2 free card’ is nuclear fusion. There are no associated residues or risks of catastrophic failure; however, the technology needs major R&D investment to bring down the lead time. This has hitherto invariably been presented as a problem whose solution is "30 years away, and always will be". But there is evidence over the past 40 years that this slippage is entirely attributable to inadequate funding. Using relatively primitive design, communication and computational tools the Manhattan project delivered fission technology for the bomb within 5 years at a cost of $2Bn (less than $30Bn today). Whilst it seems possible and acceptable for institutions like the Fed. and the BoE to create billions if not trillions at the stroke of a pen/at a key-stoke, it seems bizarre that greater urgency is not being given to accelerating the development of fusion technology (an area where UK has world-leading expertise) to deliver carbon-free electricity.
Sunday, 22 May 2011
Thursday, 19 May 2011
Evidence-based Policy? Or not?
Input to discussion on
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/05/if-conservatives-can-convince-voters-that-we-have-hearts-as-well-as-brains-we-can-dominate-politics-.html
It's all very well debating head versus heart but if government policies are seen as wrong-headed the heart considerations will hardly be relevant.
Adam Afriyie and David Willetts have espoused the principle of 'Science-led, evidence-based policy'.
We now have examples in Climate Change, Defence, Education, Electoral Reform, Energy, Health, Justice where rational debate has been overwhelmed by noise - just like the environment in the Commons chamber.
Specific recent examples:-
1) Chris Huhne's 'legally binding' carbon budget which will increase power bills, encourage industrial emigration, yet have a negligible effect on climate change - even if the climate models are accurate.
2) Liam Fox's announcement of £3Bn spend on the Trident renewal programme - this at a time when the Defence budget is being cut.
There has been minimal reporting on these matters.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/05/if-conservatives-can-convince-voters-that-we-have-hearts-as-well-as-brains-we-can-dominate-politics-.html
It's all very well debating head versus heart but if government policies are seen as wrong-headed the heart considerations will hardly be relevant.
Adam Afriyie and David Willetts have espoused the principle of 'Science-led, evidence-based policy'.
We now have examples in Climate Change, Defence, Education, Electoral Reform, Energy, Health, Justice where rational debate has been overwhelmed by noise - just like the environment in the Commons chamber.
Specific recent examples:-
1) Chris Huhne's 'legally binding' carbon budget which will increase power bills, encourage industrial emigration, yet have a negligible effect on climate change - even if the climate models are accurate.
2) Liam Fox's announcement of £3Bn spend on the Trident renewal programme - this at a time when the Defence budget is being cut.
There has been minimal reporting on these matters.
Monday, 16 May 2011
Climate Change Issues: 'Legally Binding Targets'
From BBC R4 Today programme this morning
'0853 The government is preparing to commit the UK to legally binding cuts in carbon emissions, in a deal brokered by the prime minister which will be announced tomorrow. Steve Elliott, chief executive of the Chemical Industries Association, looks at whether the targets are too stringent.'
email to the editor
This topic will clearly be raised again tomorrow following the government announcement.
Please get your interviewers ask, and keep asking until they get a clear answer: "in the (probable) event that the 'legally binding targets' are not met, who penalises whom and how?"
'0853 The government is preparing to commit the UK to legally binding cuts in carbon emissions, in a deal brokered by the prime minister which will be announced tomorrow. Steve Elliott, chief executive of the Chemical Industries Association, looks at whether the targets are too stringent.'
email to the editor
This topic will clearly be raised again tomorrow following the government announcement.
Please get your interviewers ask, and keep asking until they get a clear answer: "in the (probable) event that the 'legally binding targets' are not met, who penalises whom and how?"
Monday, 2 May 2011
Alternative Vote: There is an Alternative to FPTP
“No Government undertakes Reform Bills if they can possibly help it. It is the most ungrateful and difficult task with which any Government can be confronted” - Walter Long
[British InterParty Conferences (1980) by John D Fair]
[The electoral system in Britain since 1918 (1963) by D Butler]
The referendum next Thursday provides a once in a generation (if not a once in a lifetime) opportunity to reform the UK's political process.
The proposal is to change from ‘First Past the Post’ – FPTP – to ‘Alternative Vote - AV
The inadequacies of FPTP have been recognised for more than a century; reform has proved elusive.
We should grasp the opportunity for the modest improvement afforded by this Referendum.
There is ample evidence that change is required:-
* The disillusion with political process following the MPs' expenses scandal;
* Reducing turn-out at elections
* Reducing membership of political parties
Prior to the May 2010 General Election David Cameron was unequivocal on the issue:
Fixing Broken Politics 26/5/09
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2010/02/David_Cameron_Rebuilding_trust_in_politics.aspx
‘ ..anger at the expenses scandal is just the most forceful expression of a deep frustration people feel with our whole political system.
‘It’s a system in which too much power is concentrated in the hands of the elite and denied to the man and woman on the street. We’ve been seeing the symptoms of that for years. Decisions made behind closed doors. The Houses of Parliament bypassed and undermined.
‘Money buying influence. Too often just an elite few choosing the people who become MPs for many years. We can’t go on like this.
‘We’re just weeks away from an election. This should be the highest point in our democratic life – but never has the reputation of politics sunk so low. We’ve got to fix our broken politics and we’ve got to start fixing it now. The question is: who’s going to do it, and how are they going to do it?’
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2009/05/David_Cameron_Fixing_Broken_Politics.aspx
this political crisis shows that big change is required.
We do need a new politics in this country.
We do need sweeping reform.
Through decentralisation, transparency and accountability we must take power away from the political elite and hand it to the man and woman in the street.
The opponents of AV claim that it will lead to more coalitions with policies decided after the ballot rather than strong government following election of a Party with a defined manifesto.
However, consider the UK's economic performance since WW2; despite the huge endowment of North Sea oil it compares very unfavourably with that of similar nations: France, Germany - or even Italy.
Much of this relative decline is clearly attributable to the major policy swings from Left to Right and back again associated with the extremes of the two party system: "we have a manifesto commitment".
It should also be noted that the leader of the Conservative Party is selected in a series of votes until the winner gains at least 50% support of the voters. This is effectively the AV system.
The same procedure was adopted last year to select some Conservative Parliamentary candidates in ‘Open Primaries’.
AV has been used effectively in Australia since 1918; despite the allegations of the No-sayers the system remains popular.
Historical Perspective
1909 Winston Churchill on FPTP (as a Liberal)
‘The present system has clearly broken down. The results produced are not fair to any party, nor to any section of the community. In many cases they do not secure majority representation, nor do they secure an intelligent representation of minorities. All they secure is fluke representation, freak representation, capricious representation.
- Response to a delegation from the Manchester Liberal Federation 25 May 1909
1910 Electoral Commission
A Royal Commission of 1909-10 [Cd 5163] unanimously recommended the AV system for the House of Commons.
http://lib-161.lse.ac.uk/archives/fabian_tracts/153.pdf
‘The Alternative Vote.
Second ballot is the usual method for determining an election when three or more candidates stand for one seat, and its advantages are obvious, because it prevents the election of a candidate who is voted for by a minority of the actual voters. Our present system—also the rule in the United States and in nearly all the British Dominions—which only allows one ballot, forces compromise before the election, or splits between the various groups or parties which support the ministry or the opposition, with the result that the seat may go to the most solid and not to the most numerous section. The presence of an active and important third party in English politics, the Labor Party, makes some form of second ballot imperative. The alternative vote here proposed is strongly advocated by the Royal Commission appointed to enquire into Electoral Systems in their Report of 1910, signed by Lord Richard Cavendish, the Hon. W. Pember Reeves, Sir Courtenay Ilbert, and others.’
1917-18 The Representation of the People Bill
included proposals for STV and AV following a Speakers Conference of January 1917 which recommended STV in urban constituencies returning 3-7 MPs and AV in rural single member constituencies.
The Bill passed all its Commons readings but was blocked by the House of Lords.
At this stage, Winston Churchill, as a Liberal, supported the proposal.
1931 Representation of the People (No. 2) Bill
Context
In January 1931, the minority Labour government, then supported by the Liberals, introduced a Representation of the People Bill that included switching to AV. The Bill passed its second reading in the Commons by 295 votes to 230 on 24 February 1931 and the clause introducing AV was passed in the committee stage by 277 to 253. (The Speaker had refused to allow discussion of STV.) The Bill's second reading in the Lords followed in June, with an amendment replacing AV with STV in 100 constituencies being abandoned as outwith the scope of the Bill. An amendment was passed (by 80 votes to 29) limiting AV to those constituencies in boroughs with populations over 200,000. The Bill received its third reading in the Lords on 21 July, but the Labour government fell in August and the Bill was lost.
Hansard: debate c. 7hours
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1931/jun/02/representation-of-the-people-no-2-bill#S5CV0253P0_19310602_HOC_298
The Secretary Of State For The Home Department (Mr. Clynes) moving the 3rd Reading
’The Bill marks a definite step in the establishment of democracy on a surer and broader basis … by the device of the Alternative Vote, which endeavours to secure that Members are not returned to this House against the wishes of the majority’
Winston Churchill (as a Conservative)
‘I should greatly have preferred the method of Proportional Representation to the method of the Bill’
‘If the Government reject Proportional Representation, I think … the next best method is the second ballot.’
‘It would have been a wise and prudent feature in our constitution if a substantial proportion of the constituencies voted a few days later in the light of the situation resulting from the first ballots. All the more is this true when such enormous masses of voters are attached to no particular party, and when vast numbers of electors take little or no interest in public affairs, when they have to be almost dragged out of their houses to poll, when millions of people treat the whole process on which the Government of the country rests with indifference’
‘The plan [AV] that they have adopted is the worst of all possible plans. It is the stupidest, the least scientific and the most unreal that the Government have embodied in their Bill.’
1998 Jenkins Commission Report
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp98/rp98-112.pdf
‘The Labour party has had a commitment to hold a referendum on electoral reform since 1993, when John Smith promised one in the first term of a Labour Government. The manifesto did not give a timescale for the referendum, but the joint Labour/Liberal Democrat Joint Consultative Committee on Constitutional Reform which reported on 5 March 1997 committed both parties to a referendum in the first term of a new Parliament.’
‘Its report in October 1998 recommended a mixed system, of 80-85 per cent of the Commons to be elected by the Alternative Vote in individual constituencies, and the remaining 15-20 per cent by means of a party list- to be known as Top Up members.’
‘The Commission .. concluded that there was no perfect system: STV required very large constituencies; AV on its own was not proportional; party lists could not offer the same type of constituency link, would be likely to lead to long-term coalitions and were open to manipulation by party bureaucracies.’
Feb. 2010 Constitutional Reform and Governance Bill – 4½ hours
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmhansrd/cm100209/debtext/100209-0011.htm
Feb. 2010 House of Commons Library Briefing Paper
http://main.hop.lbi.co.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/briefings/snpc-05317.pdf
More references:-
http://residents-association.com/forum/index.php?topic=327.0
The Economist is also conducting a debate
http://www.economist.com/debate/debates/overview/202?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fdb%2Fbritainalternativevote
Other comment
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/03/ten-reasons-why-the-labour-no-campaign-are-wrong-on-av/
Hansard Society: The 8th Audit of Political Engagement
http://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blogs/recent_events/archive/2011/03/31/2969.aspx
The report shows that while last year's momentous political events increased the public's interest in politics to a record 58%, there was no matching rise in political or civic activity. Beyond voting, people were no more likely to get involved or participate in politics than they are in non-election years.
‘Despite very mixed views about the advantages and disadvantages of the Alternative Vote (AV) system, most who took part in our research discussion groups said that, if they vote, they will likely support a change in the system. This was not because of particular dissatisfaction with First Past the Post. Rather, their dissatisfaction with the current system of politics, with MPs, Parliament and government was such that almost any change was preferable to the status quo.’
‘Despite an increase in perceived knowledge of Parliament, fewer people are now satisfied with it (27%) than at any time in previous Audits (36% were satisfied in Audits 1 and 4; and 33% in Audit 7). The level of ‘dissatisfaction’ is broadly consistent with previous years. Rather, the change can be discerned in the number of people – a third compared to around a quarter in the last Audit – who say they are ‘neither satisfied nor dissatisfied’ with the working of Parliament’
Speaking about our electoral system in 1909 Winston Churchill said: "The present system has clearly broken down. The results produced are not fair to any party, nor to any section of the community. In many cases they do not secure majority representation, nor do they secure an intelligent representation of minorities. All they secure is fluke representation, freak representation, capricious representation."
The same could be said today. In the 2010 general election the largest party was the Conservatives which, with 36.1% of the vote, got 47.1% of the seats and no overall majority.
Contrast this with the result of the 2005 general election when Labour, with 35.2% of the vote, got 55.1% of the seats and a majority of 66 seats in parliament. Labour's share of the vote in 2005 can be compared to the support enjoyed in past elections by losing parties.
Attlee's share of the vote in 1955, when Eden's Conservatives won a majority of 58 (comparable to Blair's majority in 2005), was an amazing 46.4% and Attlee lost the election. Of course, in 1955 there were effectively only two parties fighting the election.
A study of the results of general elections over the last hundred years shows that there is no correlation between the percentage of votes a party receives and the percentage of seats it gets in the Commons. You might as well toss a coin for determining who should form the government. The present system can be seen to be rotten.
Because of our electoral system the political parties are only interested in the ten per cent of constituencies which are marginal and of those only the ten per cent who are floating voters. In other words, they are only interested in one per cent of the electorate because they are the ones that determine the results of the election. (The IPPR think tank assesses these swing voters at 1.6% of the electorate. Lewis Baston describes them as the 'ruling minority'). It is because the two main parties concentrate on this narrow focus that their policies converge.
Our three main political parties in the last election concentrated on what the focus groups were telling them the one per cent wanted. The other 99% were ignored, so even though a majority of the people wanted a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, none of the main parties gave them one. Even though a majority of the people wanted the troops brought home from Afghanistan, none of the main parties offered them that. Even though a majority of the people do not believe in man-made climate change and the subsidies that go with it, none of the main parties offered to scrap the subsidies. This cannot be right. When political parties spend their time and energy on just 1% of the electorate voters feel that democracy has died.
As a method of election First Past The Post (FPTP) is broken. It is not fair. It is time to change. What are the arguments in favour of FPTP?
It gives strong government. Yet we have had minority or coalition governments in 33 out of the last 100 years including at those times when we needed strong government most of all - the two World Wars and the great economic depression of the 1930s. You can add to these critical times the world economic crisis we face today.
It enables an electorate to kick a government out. Yet only once in the last 100 years has a government with a working majority been replaced by an opposition with a working majority. The only time this happened was in 1970 when Harold Wilson lost the election to Edward Heath. In most cases change takes place over three parliaments.
It is our tradition. History shows that this is not correct. We had proportional representation in the university seats up until 1950. Up until 1884 we had multi-member seats and we had those for over 600 years. It is FPTP which is the newcomer, and it was only brought in because the political parties found it easier to control candidates and to manipulate the results. The political parties started seriously organising in the 1870s.
In the referendum we will have a choice between FPTP or the Alternative Vote (AV). One great advantage of AV is that every vote will count so this should increase turnout. Another advantage is that two thirds of the seats will become marginal. This will force the political parties to address the concerns of the majority of the people rather than those of the one per cent. This will stop the practice of one man, Lord Ashcroft, financing 100 Conservative marginal seats and the trade unions doing the same for Labour. That has to be good for democracy.
AV is used to elect party leaders. It is used to elect the Speaker of the House of Commons. So MPs do not oppose AV on principle. Preferential voting was used to elect the leader of the Conservative party. Why? Because when you get over 50% of the vote it gives you legitimacy. We want the same legitimacy for members of parliament.
In 2010, in terms of votes per MP, Labour had 33,370, Conservatives 34,940 and the Liberal Democrats a massive 119,944. Even worse than the Liberal Democrats were Ukip, which got no seats in spite of receiving 920,334 votes. By contrast the Democratic Unionists only needed 21,027 votes for each of their seats.
Our parliament is supposed to be a representative democracy, but it is not representative of women. It is not representative of ethnic minorities. And it is not even representative of our political parties.
Our electoral system is morally bankrupt, so let the people decide.
[British InterParty Conferences (1980) by John D Fair]
[The electoral system in Britain since 1918 (1963) by D Butler]
The referendum next Thursday provides a once in a generation (if not a once in a lifetime) opportunity to reform the UK's political process.
The proposal is to change from ‘First Past the Post’ – FPTP – to ‘Alternative Vote - AV
The inadequacies of FPTP have been recognised for more than a century; reform has proved elusive.
We should grasp the opportunity for the modest improvement afforded by this Referendum.
There is ample evidence that change is required:-
* The disillusion with political process following the MPs' expenses scandal;
* Reducing turn-out at elections
* Reducing membership of political parties
Prior to the May 2010 General Election David Cameron was unequivocal on the issue:
Fixing Broken Politics 26/5/09
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2010/02/David_Cameron_Rebuilding_trust_in_politics.aspx
‘ ..anger at the expenses scandal is just the most forceful expression of a deep frustration people feel with our whole political system.
‘It’s a system in which too much power is concentrated in the hands of the elite and denied to the man and woman on the street. We’ve been seeing the symptoms of that for years. Decisions made behind closed doors. The Houses of Parliament bypassed and undermined.
‘Money buying influence. Too often just an elite few choosing the people who become MPs for many years. We can’t go on like this.
‘We’re just weeks away from an election. This should be the highest point in our democratic life – but never has the reputation of politics sunk so low. We’ve got to fix our broken politics and we’ve got to start fixing it now. The question is: who’s going to do it, and how are they going to do it?’
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2009/05/David_Cameron_Fixing_Broken_Politics.aspx
this political crisis shows that big change is required.
We do need a new politics in this country.
We do need sweeping reform.
Through decentralisation, transparency and accountability we must take power away from the political elite and hand it to the man and woman in the street.
The opponents of AV claim that it will lead to more coalitions with policies decided after the ballot rather than strong government following election of a Party with a defined manifesto.
However, consider the UK's economic performance since WW2; despite the huge endowment of North Sea oil it compares very unfavourably with that of similar nations: France, Germany - or even Italy.
Much of this relative decline is clearly attributable to the major policy swings from Left to Right and back again associated with the extremes of the two party system: "we have a manifesto commitment".
It should also be noted that the leader of the Conservative Party is selected in a series of votes until the winner gains at least 50% support of the voters. This is effectively the AV system.
The same procedure was adopted last year to select some Conservative Parliamentary candidates in ‘Open Primaries’.
AV has been used effectively in Australia since 1918; despite the allegations of the No-sayers the system remains popular.
Historical Perspective
1909 Winston Churchill on FPTP (as a Liberal)
‘The present system has clearly broken down. The results produced are not fair to any party, nor to any section of the community. In many cases they do not secure majority representation, nor do they secure an intelligent representation of minorities. All they secure is fluke representation, freak representation, capricious representation.
- Response to a delegation from the Manchester Liberal Federation 25 May 1909
1910 Electoral Commission
A Royal Commission of 1909-10 [Cd 5163] unanimously recommended the AV system for the House of Commons.
http://lib-161.lse.ac.uk/archives/fabian_tracts/153.pdf
‘The Alternative Vote.
Second ballot is the usual method for determining an election when three or more candidates stand for one seat, and its advantages are obvious, because it prevents the election of a candidate who is voted for by a minority of the actual voters. Our present system—also the rule in the United States and in nearly all the British Dominions—which only allows one ballot, forces compromise before the election, or splits between the various groups or parties which support the ministry or the opposition, with the result that the seat may go to the most solid and not to the most numerous section. The presence of an active and important third party in English politics, the Labor Party, makes some form of second ballot imperative. The alternative vote here proposed is strongly advocated by the Royal Commission appointed to enquire into Electoral Systems in their Report of 1910, signed by Lord Richard Cavendish, the Hon. W. Pember Reeves, Sir Courtenay Ilbert, and others.’
1917-18 The Representation of the People Bill
included proposals for STV and AV following a Speakers Conference of January 1917 which recommended STV in urban constituencies returning 3-7 MPs and AV in rural single member constituencies.
The Bill passed all its Commons readings but was blocked by the House of Lords.
At this stage, Winston Churchill, as a Liberal, supported the proposal.
1931 Representation of the People (No. 2) Bill
Context
In January 1931, the minority Labour government, then supported by the Liberals, introduced a Representation of the People Bill that included switching to AV. The Bill passed its second reading in the Commons by 295 votes to 230 on 24 February 1931 and the clause introducing AV was passed in the committee stage by 277 to 253. (The Speaker had refused to allow discussion of STV.) The Bill's second reading in the Lords followed in June, with an amendment replacing AV with STV in 100 constituencies being abandoned as outwith the scope of the Bill. An amendment was passed (by 80 votes to 29) limiting AV to those constituencies in boroughs with populations over 200,000. The Bill received its third reading in the Lords on 21 July, but the Labour government fell in August and the Bill was lost.
Hansard: debate c. 7hours
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1931/jun/02/representation-of-the-people-no-2-bill#S5CV0253P0_19310602_HOC_298
The Secretary Of State For The Home Department (Mr. Clynes) moving the 3rd Reading
’The Bill marks a definite step in the establishment of democracy on a surer and broader basis … by the device of the Alternative Vote, which endeavours to secure that Members are not returned to this House against the wishes of the majority’
Winston Churchill (as a Conservative)
‘I should greatly have preferred the method of Proportional Representation to the method of the Bill’
‘If the Government reject Proportional Representation, I think … the next best method is the second ballot.’
‘It would have been a wise and prudent feature in our constitution if a substantial proportion of the constituencies voted a few days later in the light of the situation resulting from the first ballots. All the more is this true when such enormous masses of voters are attached to no particular party, and when vast numbers of electors take little or no interest in public affairs, when they have to be almost dragged out of their houses to poll, when millions of people treat the whole process on which the Government of the country rests with indifference’
‘The plan [AV] that they have adopted is the worst of all possible plans. It is the stupidest, the least scientific and the most unreal that the Government have embodied in their Bill.’
1998 Jenkins Commission Report
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp98/rp98-112.pdf
‘The Labour party has had a commitment to hold a referendum on electoral reform since 1993, when John Smith promised one in the first term of a Labour Government. The manifesto did not give a timescale for the referendum, but the joint Labour/Liberal Democrat Joint Consultative Committee on Constitutional Reform which reported on 5 March 1997 committed both parties to a referendum in the first term of a new Parliament.’
‘Its report in October 1998 recommended a mixed system, of 80-85 per cent of the Commons to be elected by the Alternative Vote in individual constituencies, and the remaining 15-20 per cent by means of a party list- to be known as Top Up members.’
‘The Commission .. concluded that there was no perfect system: STV required very large constituencies; AV on its own was not proportional; party lists could not offer the same type of constituency link, would be likely to lead to long-term coalitions and were open to manipulation by party bureaucracies.’
Feb. 2010 Constitutional Reform and Governance Bill – 4½ hours
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmhansrd/cm100209/debtext/100209-0011.htm
Feb. 2010 House of Commons Library Briefing Paper
http://main.hop.lbi.co.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/briefings/snpc-05317.pdf
More references:-
http://residents-association.com/forum/index.php?topic=327.0
The Economist is also conducting a debate
http://www.economist.com/debate/debates/overview/202?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fdb%2Fbritainalternativevote
Other comment
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/03/ten-reasons-why-the-labour-no-campaign-are-wrong-on-av/
Hansard Society: The 8th Audit of Political Engagement
http://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blogs/recent_events/archive/2011/03/31/2969.aspx
The report shows that while last year's momentous political events increased the public's interest in politics to a record 58%, there was no matching rise in political or civic activity. Beyond voting, people were no more likely to get involved or participate in politics than they are in non-election years.
‘Despite very mixed views about the advantages and disadvantages of the Alternative Vote (AV) system, most who took part in our research discussion groups said that, if they vote, they will likely support a change in the system. This was not because of particular dissatisfaction with First Past the Post. Rather, their dissatisfaction with the current system of politics, with MPs, Parliament and government was such that almost any change was preferable to the status quo.’
‘Despite an increase in perceived knowledge of Parliament, fewer people are now satisfied with it (27%) than at any time in previous Audits (36% were satisfied in Audits 1 and 4; and 33% in Audit 7). The level of ‘dissatisfaction’ is broadly consistent with previous years. Rather, the change can be discerned in the number of people – a third compared to around a quarter in the last Audit – who say they are ‘neither satisfied nor dissatisfied’ with the working of Parliament’
Speaking about our electoral system in 1909 Winston Churchill said: "The present system has clearly broken down. The results produced are not fair to any party, nor to any section of the community. In many cases they do not secure majority representation, nor do they secure an intelligent representation of minorities. All they secure is fluke representation, freak representation, capricious representation."
The same could be said today. In the 2010 general election the largest party was the Conservatives which, with 36.1% of the vote, got 47.1% of the seats and no overall majority.
Contrast this with the result of the 2005 general election when Labour, with 35.2% of the vote, got 55.1% of the seats and a majority of 66 seats in parliament. Labour's share of the vote in 2005 can be compared to the support enjoyed in past elections by losing parties.
Attlee's share of the vote in 1955, when Eden's Conservatives won a majority of 58 (comparable to Blair's majority in 2005), was an amazing 46.4% and Attlee lost the election. Of course, in 1955 there were effectively only two parties fighting the election.
A study of the results of general elections over the last hundred years shows that there is no correlation between the percentage of votes a party receives and the percentage of seats it gets in the Commons. You might as well toss a coin for determining who should form the government. The present system can be seen to be rotten.
Because of our electoral system the political parties are only interested in the ten per cent of constituencies which are marginal and of those only the ten per cent who are floating voters. In other words, they are only interested in one per cent of the electorate because they are the ones that determine the results of the election. (The IPPR think tank assesses these swing voters at 1.6% of the electorate. Lewis Baston describes them as the 'ruling minority'). It is because the two main parties concentrate on this narrow focus that their policies converge.
Our three main political parties in the last election concentrated on what the focus groups were telling them the one per cent wanted. The other 99% were ignored, so even though a majority of the people wanted a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, none of the main parties gave them one. Even though a majority of the people wanted the troops brought home from Afghanistan, none of the main parties offered them that. Even though a majority of the people do not believe in man-made climate change and the subsidies that go with it, none of the main parties offered to scrap the subsidies. This cannot be right. When political parties spend their time and energy on just 1% of the electorate voters feel that democracy has died.
As a method of election First Past The Post (FPTP) is broken. It is not fair. It is time to change. What are the arguments in favour of FPTP?
It gives strong government. Yet we have had minority or coalition governments in 33 out of the last 100 years including at those times when we needed strong government most of all - the two World Wars and the great economic depression of the 1930s. You can add to these critical times the world economic crisis we face today.
It enables an electorate to kick a government out. Yet only once in the last 100 years has a government with a working majority been replaced by an opposition with a working majority. The only time this happened was in 1970 when Harold Wilson lost the election to Edward Heath. In most cases change takes place over three parliaments.
It is our tradition. History shows that this is not correct. We had proportional representation in the university seats up until 1950. Up until 1884 we had multi-member seats and we had those for over 600 years. It is FPTP which is the newcomer, and it was only brought in because the political parties found it easier to control candidates and to manipulate the results. The political parties started seriously organising in the 1870s.
In the referendum we will have a choice between FPTP or the Alternative Vote (AV). One great advantage of AV is that every vote will count so this should increase turnout. Another advantage is that two thirds of the seats will become marginal. This will force the political parties to address the concerns of the majority of the people rather than those of the one per cent. This will stop the practice of one man, Lord Ashcroft, financing 100 Conservative marginal seats and the trade unions doing the same for Labour. That has to be good for democracy.
AV is used to elect party leaders. It is used to elect the Speaker of the House of Commons. So MPs do not oppose AV on principle. Preferential voting was used to elect the leader of the Conservative party. Why? Because when you get over 50% of the vote it gives you legitimacy. We want the same legitimacy for members of parliament.
In 2010, in terms of votes per MP, Labour had 33,370, Conservatives 34,940 and the Liberal Democrats a massive 119,944. Even worse than the Liberal Democrats were Ukip, which got no seats in spite of receiving 920,334 votes. By contrast the Democratic Unionists only needed 21,027 votes for each of their seats.
Our parliament is supposed to be a representative democracy, but it is not representative of women. It is not representative of ethnic minorities. And it is not even representative of our political parties.
Our electoral system is morally bankrupt, so let the people decide.
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Goldstone Report: update and commentries
1. The Original Report 25 September 2009
http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/12session/A-HRC-12-48.pdf
2. Update from the two other members of the Commission 19 November 2010
Hina Jilani is an Advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan
Desmond Travers is a former officer of the Irish Army and war investigator
http://search.wn.com/?results_type=videos&language_id=1&search_type=expression&search_string=un+goldstone+event+with+hina+hilani+desmond+travers&sort_type=-pub-datetime&template=cheetah-search-adv%2Findex.txt&action=search&corpus=current
3. Washington Post article 1st April 2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/reconsidering-the-goldstone-report-on-israel-and-war-crimes/2011/04/01/AFg111JC_story.html
4.Review on countercurrents
http://www.countercurrents.org/emmerich030411.htm
5. Review on honestreporting
http://honestreporting.com/goldstone-if-i-had-known-then-what-i-know-now%E2%80%A6/
6. Further response from Hina Jilani 4th April 2011
http://www.middleeastmonitor.org.uk/resources/interviews/2207-member-of-un-fact-finding-mission-on-gaza-conflict-insists-report-still-stands-unchanged
http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/12session/A-HRC-12-48.pdf
2. Update from the two other members of the Commission 19 November 2010
Hina Jilani is an Advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan
Desmond Travers is a former officer of the Irish Army and war investigator
http://search.wn.com/?results_type=videos&language_id=1&search_type=expression&search_string=un+goldstone+event+with+hina+hilani+desmond+travers&sort_type=-pub-datetime&template=cheetah-search-adv%2Findex.txt&action=search&corpus=current
3. Washington Post article 1st April 2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/reconsidering-the-goldstone-report-on-israel-and-war-crimes/2011/04/01/AFg111JC_story.html
4.Review on countercurrents
http://www.countercurrents.org/emmerich030411.htm
5. Review on honestreporting
http://honestreporting.com/goldstone-if-i-had-known-then-what-i-know-now%E2%80%A6/
6. Further response from Hina Jilani 4th April 2011
http://www.middleeastmonitor.org.uk/resources/interviews/2207-member-of-un-fact-finding-mission-on-gaza-conflict-insists-report-still-stands-unchanged
Thursday, 16 December 2010
Mayhem in the Mediterranean: further update 23rd January 2011
23/1/11 Turkil Committee report Part 1
http://www.turkel-committee.gov.il/content-107.html
Update on Ban Ki-Moon Inquiry from
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=deadline-for-un-probe-into-deadly-flotilla-raid-postponed-yet-another-time-2011-01-09
Deadline for UN probe into deadly flotilla raid postponed yet again
Sunday, January 9, 2011
ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News
A U.N. inquiry into the Mavi Marmara tragedy has again postponed the release of its report. The report will be released in April.
27/9/10 UNHRC report
http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/15session/A.HRC.15.21_en.pdf
http://www.turkel-committee.gov.il/content-107.html
Update on Ban Ki-Moon Inquiry from
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=deadline-for-un-probe-into-deadly-flotilla-raid-postponed-yet-another-time-2011-01-09
Deadline for UN probe into deadly flotilla raid postponed yet again
Sunday, January 9, 2011
ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News
A U.N. inquiry into the Mavi Marmara tragedy has again postponed the release of its report. The report will be released in April.
27/9/10 UNHRC report
http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/15session/A.HRC.15.21_en.pdf
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Squaring the Circle: London 13th December
On Monday 13th December 2010 the Henry Jackson Society and Just Journalism are holding a ‘Panel Discussion’: “Squaring the Circle? Britain & the De-legitimisation of Israel”
The panellists are: Israel Ambassador to UK Ron Prosor; Baroness Ruth Deech;
Daniel Finkelstein; Nick Cohen; Rafael Bardaji; Stephen Pollard.
More details on: www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?pageid=49&id=1840
- reproduced below
Any criticism of Israeli policies seems to stimulate a bombardment of largely ad hominem abuse in which Gentiles are categorised as ‘anti-semitic’, Jews as ‘self-hating’.
My own heritage: according to the National Geographic research project, my maternal DNA is associated with Ashkenazi Jewish descent.
The current round of peace talks initiated by President Obama has foundered with the impasse over the freeze in settlement construction.
The BBC’s Today programme, Radio 4 Saturday 11th December 2010 featured an interview with Martin Indyk Vice President for Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, former United States ambassador to Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during the Clinton Administration.
[Vice President for Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. Indyk served as United States ambassador to Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during the Clinton Administration. He is arguably best known as one of the lead U.S. negotiators at the Camp David talks - Wikipedia]
His biographical data indicates that he is firmly pro-Israel.
He said:
‘If there are going to be 2 states, the border between them has to be defined’
‘so “it’s the borders, stupid”’ is the new mantra’
He suggested that the way forward should be:
Upfront: Mutual recognition of the 2 states: then state-to-state negotiation.
Revert to the language of the 1947 UN resolution.
Revert to Resolution 242: Borders based on the line of June 4 1967
Settlement blocks: The 1993 Oslo Accords followed by the Camp David negotiations between Yasser Arafat and Ehud Barak provided agreement in principle that the settlement blocks which hold about 70% of the settlers but exist on about 3-4% of the West Bank territory would be absorbed into Israel with swaps of territory from Israel to compensate the Palestinians.
So to the questions I hope to put:
Do you agree with Martin Indyk’s proposals?
Is it realistic?
There are probably some 350,000 settlers in the West Bank so this implies that there are either c. 100,000 relocations or that these people join the Palestinian state.
(‘As of July 2009, 304,569 Israelis live in the 121 officially-recognised settlements in the West Bank’ – Wikipedia)
Is Israel prepared to publish an indicative map?
Ow would this compare that published currently on the internet with Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs?
You might also wish to comment on the negative image which Israel presents exemplified by:
1) Its studied nonchalance on the possession of WMD despite independent evidence from South Africa (1975), Mordechai Vanunu (1986), Jimmy Carter (2008).
2) The casualty figures in Operation Cast Lead; the use of phosphorus munitions; supporting testimonies of Israeli combat soldiers.
(http://www.shovrimshtika.org/oferet/news_item_e.asp?id=1)
3) The interception of the Mavi Marmara.
Other references:-
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israeli-official-barak-s-vision-of-dividing-jerusalem-is-not-government-policy-1.330184
Defense Minister Ehud Barak's expressed support for partitioning Jerusalem along Jewish and Arab lines according to an initiative presented by former U.S. President Bill Clinton in 2000 is not official Israeli policy, an official in Jerusalem said Sunday,
In his address to the Saban Center for Middle East Policy seventh annual forum in Washington, the defense minister said that Israel should retain control of all Jewish neighborhoods in the capital and relinquish sovereignty over heavily Arab areas to the Palestinian Authority.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/clinton-to-israel-time-to-deal-with-the-core-issues-1.330102
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested in a speech on Friday that the United States will step up pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to move toward establishing a Palestinian state.
Also, in an unusual move, Clinton held an hour-long meeting in Washington with the head of the opposition, Tzipi Livni. Clinton made it clear that the prime minister must begin mapping out the borders of a Palestinian state in the coming weeks, even without direct negotiations with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
"It is time to grapple with the core issues of the conflict on borders and security; settlements, water and refugees; and on Jerusalem itself," Clinton said in her speech at the Saban Forum in Washington.
"And starting with my meetings this week, that is exactly what we are doing. We will also deepen our strong commitment to supporting the state-building work of the Palestinian Authority and continue to urge the states of the region to develop the content of the Arab Peace Initiative and to work toward implementing its vision."
Clinton focused on simple messages: The peace process will continue, and the leaders must stop trying to find excuses and people to blame. The United States will only step up its efforts in the region. The bottom line, she says, is that a Palestinian state is an inevitability.
"So even as we engage both sides on the core issues with an eye toward eventually restarting direct negotiations, we will deepen our support of the Palestinians' state-building efforts. Because we recognize that a Palestinian state achieved through negotiations is inevitable," Clinton said.
The U.S. administration began on Thursday night by relaying messages to Netanyahu during a meeting with Isaac Molho, the prime minister's adviser. The United States is very serious and wants to advance the process, Clinton told Molho.
An Israeli source who was briefed on Molho's meetings said the Americans described them as "very bad," and Clinton made clear she will not let Netanyahu "water down" the talks and avoid submitting serious positions on the core issues.
Over the weekend, neither Netanyahu nor his office published any response to Clinton's speech.
Special U.S. envoy George Mitchell is due to arrive in Israel tomorrow, his first visit in four months. He will meet with Netanyahu tomorrow and with Abbas on Tuesday.
Several hours before her speech, Clinton sent Netanyahu another message by meeting with Livni in her State Department office for the first time since the establishment of the Netanyahu government. Clinton only met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak for 20 minutes in a side room at the hotel where the Saban Forum was held.
The Obama administration's dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's delaying tactics was evident in Clinton's speech. Contrary to the compliments she offered to Abbas and his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, she had nothing good to say about the Israeli prime minister.
She said that one does not need to read secret diplomatic cables to know that the situation is difficult. "I understand and indeed I share the deep frustrations of many of you in this room and across the region and the world," she said.
"But rather than dwell on what has come before, I want to focus tonight on the way forward, on America's continuing engagement in helping the parties achieve a two-state solution that ends the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians once and for all, and on what it will take, finally, to realize that elusive, but essential goal."
Clinton said borders and security are of the highest importance, but also mentioned the thorniest of issues in U.S.-Israeli relations.
"The fate of existing settlements is an issue that must be dealt with by the parties along with the other final status issues. But let me be clear: The position of the United States on settlements has not changed and will not change. Like every American administration for decades, we do not accept the legitimacy of continued settlement activity. We believe their continued expansion is corrosive not only to peace efforts and two-state solution, but to Israel's future itself."
She later said that to "demonstrate their commitment to peace, Israeli and Palestinian leaders should stop trying to assign blame for the next failure, and focus instead on what they need to do to make these efforts succeed.
"And to demonstrate their commitment to peace, they should avoid actions that prejudge the outcome of negotiations or undermine good faith efforts to resolve final status issues. Unilateral efforts at the United Nations are not helpful and undermine trust. Provocative announcements on East Jerusalem are counterproductive. And the United States will not shy away from saying so."
Offering condolences to the families of the victims in the Carmel fire, she praised the international contribution to the firefighting effort.
"Israelis are always among the first to lend a hand when an emergency strikes anywhere in the world. So when the fires began to burn, people and nations stepped up and offered help. It was remarkable to watch," she said.
According to Clinton, "The United States will always be there when Israel is threatened. We say it often, but it bears repeating: America's commitment to Israel's security and its future is rock solid and unwavering, and that will not change."
However, Clinton stressed that "Iran and its proxies are not the only threat to regional stability or to Israel's long-term security. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and between Israel and Arab neighbors is a source of tension and an obstacle to prosperity and opportunity for all the people of the region. It denies the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people and it poses a threat to Israel's future security. It is at odds also with the interests of the United States."
Meanwhile, senior Palestinian figures said yesterday that Clinton should have clearly laid the blame for the failure of the talks on Israel. Yasser Abed Rabbo, secretary general of the PLO Executive Council, told Palestinian television that the United States has admitted to the failure of its policy for the first time since Vietnam, and that the party responsible for this failure was Israel.
“Squaring the Circle? Britain & the De-legitimisation of Israel”
A Panel Discussion: 7:00-8:30pm, Monday 13th December 2010
Tony Blair, in a recent keynote speech at the Herzliya Forum for Diplomacy in Israel, identified two forms of de-legitimisation of Israel. Traditional de-legitimisation, whereby Israel’s very right to exist is questioned or challenged, is easier to combat because its objectives are clearly stated. But the second form, which Blair termed ‘insidious’ de-legitimisation, ‘is a conscious or often unconscious resistance, sometimes bordering on refusal, to accept Israel has a legitimate point of view.’ This is expressed in subtler fashion and therefore all the more difficult to counter.
Much of the British media has taken a hostile view towards Israel and its actions, be it with respect to the Free Gaza flotilla raid, renewed peace negotiations or the on-going threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Honest criticism of Israeli policies is often overwhelmed by strident voices which refuse to countenance any justification or explanation of those polices, must less acknowledge Israel’s fundamental right to exist. Misleading or tendentious journalism gets published in a cultural atmosphere where the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign, designed to weaken Israel economically, is considered a viable means of debating the complexities of the Middle East. The British intelligentsia and political class morally compare antisemitic terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah to Israel – and often compare them favourably. On radicalised university campuses, ‘Zionism’ is routinely anathematised and presented as a byword for Judaism.
De-legitimisation is a problem with serious and far-reaching consequences not just for Israel and the Jewish diaspora, but is troubling for all those wishing to have a civil discussion in the UK about the Jewish state’s past, present and future, about peace in the Middle East and about the strategic implications of the intellectual currents it so often masks. It is a harbinger of an intellectual climate that must not go unchallenged.
This panel, jointly hosted by the Henry Jackson Society and Just Journalism, is an opportunity to partake in a discussion on the topic with some of the most distinguished voices in the UK who will attempt to analyse the problem and explore strategies for combating this noxious trend across all fields, from politics to the media, academia and the arts.
Biographies
His Excellency Ambassador Ron Prosor has been Israel's Envoy to the Court of St. James’s since 2007. Mr Prosor joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1986 and was in 2004 named Director General, having been previously Senior Deputy Director and Chief of Policy Staff to the Foreign Minister. He was also Minister-Counsellor for Political Affairs in the United States and Spokesman in London and Bonn. He is Fluent in English and German. Serving in the United States during the Clinton-Bush election and the transition from Labor to Likud governments in Israel, Mr. Prosor was part of the Israeli delegation to the Wye River Plantation talks in Maryland in 1998. In London he was instrumental in arranging the first Israeli state visit to the United Kingdom by President Ezer Weizmann, and in Bonn oversaw relations with reunified Germany's five new federal states. Mr. Prosor is married to Hadas and they have three children.
Baroness Ruth Deech taught law at Oxford University until she was elected Principal of St Anne’s College, from 1991 to 2004. At Oxford she was a pro Vice-Chancellor and chaired the Admissions Committee. In 1994 Ruth Deech was appointed chair of the UK Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority, a national committee charged with monitoring all IVF clinics and laboratories in the UK, and with approving assisted reproductive treatments and embryo research. In the period of her chairmanship to 2002 the HFEA oversaw the introduction of pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and stem cell research. From 2002 to 2006 Ruth Deech was a Governor of the BBC, participating in the accountability and strategy of national TV and radio. From 2004 to 2008 she was the first Independent Adjudicator for Higher Education for England and Wales - a national campus ombudsman - responsible for reviewing student complaints from 147 universities. In 2008 she was appointed Gresham Professor of Law, lecturing in the City of London on reproductive law and ethics. She is a frequent broadcaster on these topics. She is also chair of a national committee on equal opportunities for Women in Medicine. In 2005 she was created a life peer (Baroness Deech, of Cumnor) and sits in the House of Lords as a non-party legislator.
Daniel Finkelstein OBE graduated from the London School of Economics, where he studied economics & politics. He was awarded the OBE in the 1997 honours list. Between 1981 and 1990 he was a member of the SDP, becoming Chair of the Young Social Democrats during the 1983 general election campaign. Before working for the Conservative Party, Daniel Finkelstein was Director of the think tank the Social Market Foundation for three years. Between 1995 and 1997 Finkelstein was Director of the Conservative Research Department. Between 1997 and 2001 he was political adviser to the Leader of the Opposition Rt. Hon William Hague MP, and, together with George Osborne, Secretary to the Shadow Cabinet. Finkelstein joined The Times in August 2001 as part of the leader writing team and was Comment Editor from March 2004 - June 2008. He became Chief Leader Writer in June 2008 and is currently the Executive Editor.
Nick Cohen is a columnist for the Observer and writes occasional pieces for many other publications, including Standpoint and New Humanist. Cruel Britannia, a collection of his journalism, was published by Verso in 1999, and Pretty Straight Guys, a history of Britain under Tony Blair, was published by Faber in 2003. ‘What’s Left?’ the story of how the liberal-left of the 20th century ended up supporting the far right of the 21st was published by 4th Estate in February 2007. His latest book is ‘Waiting for The Etonians’.
Rafael Bardaji is the Executive Director of the Friends of Israel Initiative, a high-level international leadership project recently launched by former President of the Spanish Government José María Aznar to counter the increasing attempts to de-legitimise the State of Israel and its right to live in peace within safe and defensible borders. From 1986 to 1996 he was the Director of the “Strategic Studies Group” (GEES), a private, non-partisan institution based in Madrid which conducts research and produces analysis on international security and defense issues. In 1996 he was appointed Senior Strategic Advisor to the Defence Minister of Spain. In 2002, he became National Security Advisor to Mr Aznar for the remainder of his term in office, and continues to advise him on national and international policy issues.
Stephen Pollard is the Editor of the Jewish Chronicle. He was previously President of the Centre for the New Europe, a Brussels-based think tank and is the Chairman of the European Institute for the Study of Contemporary Antisemitism. His biography of David Blunkett, the former Home Secretary, was published in December 2004. From 1998-2000 he was a columnist and Chief Leader Writer on the Daily Express. From 1995-98 he was Head of Research at the Social Market Foundation, and from 1992-95 Research Director at the Fabian Society. He is the author of numerous pamphlets and books on health and education policy, and is co-author with Andrew Adonis of the best-selling A Class Act - the Myth of Britain's Classless Society (Penguin 1998). He has been described by the BBC as 'Britain's most prolific columnist'.
The panellists are: Israel Ambassador to UK Ron Prosor; Baroness Ruth Deech;
Daniel Finkelstein; Nick Cohen; Rafael Bardaji; Stephen Pollard.
More details on: www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?pageid=49&id=1840
- reproduced below
Any criticism of Israeli policies seems to stimulate a bombardment of largely ad hominem abuse in which Gentiles are categorised as ‘anti-semitic’, Jews as ‘self-hating’.
My own heritage: according to the National Geographic research project, my maternal DNA is associated with Ashkenazi Jewish descent.
The current round of peace talks initiated by President Obama has foundered with the impasse over the freeze in settlement construction.
The BBC’s Today programme, Radio 4 Saturday 11th December 2010 featured an interview with Martin Indyk Vice President for Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, former United States ambassador to Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during the Clinton Administration.
[Vice President for Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. Indyk served as United States ambassador to Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during the Clinton Administration. He is arguably best known as one of the lead U.S. negotiators at the Camp David talks - Wikipedia]
His biographical data indicates that he is firmly pro-Israel.
He said:
‘If there are going to be 2 states, the border between them has to be defined’
‘so “it’s the borders, stupid”’ is the new mantra’
He suggested that the way forward should be:
Upfront: Mutual recognition of the 2 states: then state-to-state negotiation.
Revert to the language of the 1947 UN resolution.
Revert to Resolution 242: Borders based on the line of June 4 1967
Settlement blocks: The 1993 Oslo Accords followed by the Camp David negotiations between Yasser Arafat and Ehud Barak provided agreement in principle that the settlement blocks which hold about 70% of the settlers but exist on about 3-4% of the West Bank territory would be absorbed into Israel with swaps of territory from Israel to compensate the Palestinians.
So to the questions I hope to put:
Do you agree with Martin Indyk’s proposals?
Is it realistic?
There are probably some 350,000 settlers in the West Bank so this implies that there are either c. 100,000 relocations or that these people join the Palestinian state.
(‘As of July 2009, 304,569 Israelis live in the 121 officially-recognised settlements in the West Bank’ – Wikipedia)
Is Israel prepared to publish an indicative map?
Ow would this compare that published currently on the internet with Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs?
You might also wish to comment on the negative image which Israel presents exemplified by:
1) Its studied nonchalance on the possession of WMD despite independent evidence from South Africa (1975), Mordechai Vanunu (1986), Jimmy Carter (2008).
2) The casualty figures in Operation Cast Lead; the use of phosphorus munitions; supporting testimonies of Israeli combat soldiers.
(http://www.shovrimshtika.org/oferet/news_item_e.asp?id=1)
3) The interception of the Mavi Marmara.
Other references:-
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israeli-official-barak-s-vision-of-dividing-jerusalem-is-not-government-policy-1.330184
Defense Minister Ehud Barak's expressed support for partitioning Jerusalem along Jewish and Arab lines according to an initiative presented by former U.S. President Bill Clinton in 2000 is not official Israeli policy, an official in Jerusalem said Sunday,
In his address to the Saban Center for Middle East Policy seventh annual forum in Washington, the defense minister said that Israel should retain control of all Jewish neighborhoods in the capital and relinquish sovereignty over heavily Arab areas to the Palestinian Authority.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/clinton-to-israel-time-to-deal-with-the-core-issues-1.330102
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested in a speech on Friday that the United States will step up pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to move toward establishing a Palestinian state.
Also, in an unusual move, Clinton held an hour-long meeting in Washington with the head of the opposition, Tzipi Livni. Clinton made it clear that the prime minister must begin mapping out the borders of a Palestinian state in the coming weeks, even without direct negotiations with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
"It is time to grapple with the core issues of the conflict on borders and security; settlements, water and refugees; and on Jerusalem itself," Clinton said in her speech at the Saban Forum in Washington.
"And starting with my meetings this week, that is exactly what we are doing. We will also deepen our strong commitment to supporting the state-building work of the Palestinian Authority and continue to urge the states of the region to develop the content of the Arab Peace Initiative and to work toward implementing its vision."
Clinton focused on simple messages: The peace process will continue, and the leaders must stop trying to find excuses and people to blame. The United States will only step up its efforts in the region. The bottom line, she says, is that a Palestinian state is an inevitability.
"So even as we engage both sides on the core issues with an eye toward eventually restarting direct negotiations, we will deepen our support of the Palestinians' state-building efforts. Because we recognize that a Palestinian state achieved through negotiations is inevitable," Clinton said.
The U.S. administration began on Thursday night by relaying messages to Netanyahu during a meeting with Isaac Molho, the prime minister's adviser. The United States is very serious and wants to advance the process, Clinton told Molho.
An Israeli source who was briefed on Molho's meetings said the Americans described them as "very bad," and Clinton made clear she will not let Netanyahu "water down" the talks and avoid submitting serious positions on the core issues.
Over the weekend, neither Netanyahu nor his office published any response to Clinton's speech.
Special U.S. envoy George Mitchell is due to arrive in Israel tomorrow, his first visit in four months. He will meet with Netanyahu tomorrow and with Abbas on Tuesday.
Several hours before her speech, Clinton sent Netanyahu another message by meeting with Livni in her State Department office for the first time since the establishment of the Netanyahu government. Clinton only met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak for 20 minutes in a side room at the hotel where the Saban Forum was held.
The Obama administration's dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's delaying tactics was evident in Clinton's speech. Contrary to the compliments she offered to Abbas and his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, she had nothing good to say about the Israeli prime minister.
She said that one does not need to read secret diplomatic cables to know that the situation is difficult. "I understand and indeed I share the deep frustrations of many of you in this room and across the region and the world," she said.
"But rather than dwell on what has come before, I want to focus tonight on the way forward, on America's continuing engagement in helping the parties achieve a two-state solution that ends the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians once and for all, and on what it will take, finally, to realize that elusive, but essential goal."
Clinton said borders and security are of the highest importance, but also mentioned the thorniest of issues in U.S.-Israeli relations.
"The fate of existing settlements is an issue that must be dealt with by the parties along with the other final status issues. But let me be clear: The position of the United States on settlements has not changed and will not change. Like every American administration for decades, we do not accept the legitimacy of continued settlement activity. We believe their continued expansion is corrosive not only to peace efforts and two-state solution, but to Israel's future itself."
She later said that to "demonstrate their commitment to peace, Israeli and Palestinian leaders should stop trying to assign blame for the next failure, and focus instead on what they need to do to make these efforts succeed.
"And to demonstrate their commitment to peace, they should avoid actions that prejudge the outcome of negotiations or undermine good faith efforts to resolve final status issues. Unilateral efforts at the United Nations are not helpful and undermine trust. Provocative announcements on East Jerusalem are counterproductive. And the United States will not shy away from saying so."
Offering condolences to the families of the victims in the Carmel fire, she praised the international contribution to the firefighting effort.
"Israelis are always among the first to lend a hand when an emergency strikes anywhere in the world. So when the fires began to burn, people and nations stepped up and offered help. It was remarkable to watch," she said.
According to Clinton, "The United States will always be there when Israel is threatened. We say it often, but it bears repeating: America's commitment to Israel's security and its future is rock solid and unwavering, and that will not change."
However, Clinton stressed that "Iran and its proxies are not the only threat to regional stability or to Israel's long-term security. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and between Israel and Arab neighbors is a source of tension and an obstacle to prosperity and opportunity for all the people of the region. It denies the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people and it poses a threat to Israel's future security. It is at odds also with the interests of the United States."
Meanwhile, senior Palestinian figures said yesterday that Clinton should have clearly laid the blame for the failure of the talks on Israel. Yasser Abed Rabbo, secretary general of the PLO Executive Council, told Palestinian television that the United States has admitted to the failure of its policy for the first time since Vietnam, and that the party responsible for this failure was Israel.
“Squaring the Circle? Britain & the De-legitimisation of Israel”
A Panel Discussion: 7:00-8:30pm, Monday 13th December 2010
Tony Blair, in a recent keynote speech at the Herzliya Forum for Diplomacy in Israel, identified two forms of de-legitimisation of Israel. Traditional de-legitimisation, whereby Israel’s very right to exist is questioned or challenged, is easier to combat because its objectives are clearly stated. But the second form, which Blair termed ‘insidious’ de-legitimisation, ‘is a conscious or often unconscious resistance, sometimes bordering on refusal, to accept Israel has a legitimate point of view.’ This is expressed in subtler fashion and therefore all the more difficult to counter.
Much of the British media has taken a hostile view towards Israel and its actions, be it with respect to the Free Gaza flotilla raid, renewed peace negotiations or the on-going threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Honest criticism of Israeli policies is often overwhelmed by strident voices which refuse to countenance any justification or explanation of those polices, must less acknowledge Israel’s fundamental right to exist. Misleading or tendentious journalism gets published in a cultural atmosphere where the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign, designed to weaken Israel economically, is considered a viable means of debating the complexities of the Middle East. The British intelligentsia and political class morally compare antisemitic terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah to Israel – and often compare them favourably. On radicalised university campuses, ‘Zionism’ is routinely anathematised and presented as a byword for Judaism.
De-legitimisation is a problem with serious and far-reaching consequences not just for Israel and the Jewish diaspora, but is troubling for all those wishing to have a civil discussion in the UK about the Jewish state’s past, present and future, about peace in the Middle East and about the strategic implications of the intellectual currents it so often masks. It is a harbinger of an intellectual climate that must not go unchallenged.
This panel, jointly hosted by the Henry Jackson Society and Just Journalism, is an opportunity to partake in a discussion on the topic with some of the most distinguished voices in the UK who will attempt to analyse the problem and explore strategies for combating this noxious trend across all fields, from politics to the media, academia and the arts.
Biographies
His Excellency Ambassador Ron Prosor has been Israel's Envoy to the Court of St. James’s since 2007. Mr Prosor joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1986 and was in 2004 named Director General, having been previously Senior Deputy Director and Chief of Policy Staff to the Foreign Minister. He was also Minister-Counsellor for Political Affairs in the United States and Spokesman in London and Bonn. He is Fluent in English and German. Serving in the United States during the Clinton-Bush election and the transition from Labor to Likud governments in Israel, Mr. Prosor was part of the Israeli delegation to the Wye River Plantation talks in Maryland in 1998. In London he was instrumental in arranging the first Israeli state visit to the United Kingdom by President Ezer Weizmann, and in Bonn oversaw relations with reunified Germany's five new federal states. Mr. Prosor is married to Hadas and they have three children.
Baroness Ruth Deech taught law at Oxford University until she was elected Principal of St Anne’s College, from 1991 to 2004. At Oxford she was a pro Vice-Chancellor and chaired the Admissions Committee. In 1994 Ruth Deech was appointed chair of the UK Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority, a national committee charged with monitoring all IVF clinics and laboratories in the UK, and with approving assisted reproductive treatments and embryo research. In the period of her chairmanship to 2002 the HFEA oversaw the introduction of pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and stem cell research. From 2002 to 2006 Ruth Deech was a Governor of the BBC, participating in the accountability and strategy of national TV and radio. From 2004 to 2008 she was the first Independent Adjudicator for Higher Education for England and Wales - a national campus ombudsman - responsible for reviewing student complaints from 147 universities. In 2008 she was appointed Gresham Professor of Law, lecturing in the City of London on reproductive law and ethics. She is a frequent broadcaster on these topics. She is also chair of a national committee on equal opportunities for Women in Medicine. In 2005 she was created a life peer (Baroness Deech, of Cumnor) and sits in the House of Lords as a non-party legislator.
Daniel Finkelstein OBE graduated from the London School of Economics, where he studied economics & politics. He was awarded the OBE in the 1997 honours list. Between 1981 and 1990 he was a member of the SDP, becoming Chair of the Young Social Democrats during the 1983 general election campaign. Before working for the Conservative Party, Daniel Finkelstein was Director of the think tank the Social Market Foundation for three years. Between 1995 and 1997 Finkelstein was Director of the Conservative Research Department. Between 1997 and 2001 he was political adviser to the Leader of the Opposition Rt. Hon William Hague MP, and, together with George Osborne, Secretary to the Shadow Cabinet. Finkelstein joined The Times in August 2001 as part of the leader writing team and was Comment Editor from March 2004 - June 2008. He became Chief Leader Writer in June 2008 and is currently the Executive Editor.
Nick Cohen is a columnist for the Observer and writes occasional pieces for many other publications, including Standpoint and New Humanist. Cruel Britannia, a collection of his journalism, was published by Verso in 1999, and Pretty Straight Guys, a history of Britain under Tony Blair, was published by Faber in 2003. ‘What’s Left?’ the story of how the liberal-left of the 20th century ended up supporting the far right of the 21st was published by 4th Estate in February 2007. His latest book is ‘Waiting for The Etonians’.
Rafael Bardaji is the Executive Director of the Friends of Israel Initiative, a high-level international leadership project recently launched by former President of the Spanish Government José María Aznar to counter the increasing attempts to de-legitimise the State of Israel and its right to live in peace within safe and defensible borders. From 1986 to 1996 he was the Director of the “Strategic Studies Group” (GEES), a private, non-partisan institution based in Madrid which conducts research and produces analysis on international security and defense issues. In 1996 he was appointed Senior Strategic Advisor to the Defence Minister of Spain. In 2002, he became National Security Advisor to Mr Aznar for the remainder of his term in office, and continues to advise him on national and international policy issues.
Stephen Pollard is the Editor of the Jewish Chronicle. He was previously President of the Centre for the New Europe, a Brussels-based think tank and is the Chairman of the European Institute for the Study of Contemporary Antisemitism. His biography of David Blunkett, the former Home Secretary, was published in December 2004. From 1998-2000 he was a columnist and Chief Leader Writer on the Daily Express. From 1995-98 he was Head of Research at the Social Market Foundation, and from 1992-95 Research Director at the Fabian Society. He is the author of numerous pamphlets and books on health and education policy, and is co-author with Andrew Adonis of the best-selling A Class Act - the Myth of Britain's Classless Society (Penguin 1998). He has been described by the BBC as 'Britain's most prolific columnist'.
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